Alright, so more of a scientific/personal post rather than anime, but dw, this is connected to anime as I will explain in a second.

Context
Ok, so I’m just gonna jump right into it the context.

In season 1 episode 7 of Tonikawa, Nasa says this

In the manga he says it in chapter 26

Ok, so my explanation will be a little messy but bare with me here and try not to get too lost.

Put those quotes on hold for a minute.  Before I talk about the quotes, I gotta give some life context.  So ever since I can remember, I’ve always been intrigued by space and astronomy.  The idea of such an insane universe outside out pale blue dot was always such a mind boggling thing to think about.  Everyone knows that space exists, that it’s big, that there’s crazy stuff that goes down in it, but your average Joe won’t think about it too deeply.  I’ll grace myself in saying that I was quite a curious young boy who liked to learn a lot when I was a kid, and it is pretty true to a certain extent.  I loved learning about anything space from the Apollo missions, to the Mercury and Gemini missions, to very basic astrophysics concepts that even a dumb kid can understand such as the concepts of masses orbiting around larger masses that distort space.  Just like any other person into astronomy, the question of does life, especially intelligent life, exist anywhere else in the universe and can we contact them was one I’ve always wondered about.

Btw, I’ll also say that I have no plans in being a scientist or working in any fields related to astronomy and space flight bc I prefer to keep my personal interests and hobbies separate from the annoyingness of work.  Though I do also volunteer in an aerospace museum which is pretty cool.

Now back to the quotes.  When I first saw Nasa speak these words, you better bet it sparked my interest.  Btw another reason why Hata-sensei is goated.  He has similar interests and always references things that interest me.  But anyway, ofc after seeing this, I had to do some of my own research.

Now I do unfortunately have to say Hata-sensei probably got a little info wrong here, though it might be a translation error, but the Drake equation specifically is for intelligent life in the galaxy, not just extra-terrestrial life forms in space.  Also as I’ll explain later, the 0.0000034% probably doesn’t actually apply to Nasa.  Little nitpicks, I know, but just want to point it out.

Anyway, after learning about this application, I ofc wanted to apply it to myself.  And as expected, I procrastinated on this simple task until 4 years later lmao.  But maybe it’s for the best because now I can write about it on this.  Alright, next section.

Frank Drake Equation
I won’t get into too much detail about the equation bc you can just read about it on something like NASA’s website.  A simple and short explanation is that Frank Drake (an American astrophysicist and astrobiologist) created the famous Drake equation in which he identifies what should be used to calculate the chances of advance intelligent life in the Milky Way.  I don’t believe he gave a specific numerical answer, but according to Backus, it came out to be about
0.00000003% or about 10,000 civilizations in the Milky Way.  If you ask me, I believe this number is a little too high when you consider more specific factors such as the fact that we have Jupiter in our system which protects us from large asteroid for the most part by pulling them with its own gravitational pull.  Ofc the dinosaur one got through, but there’d be much more without Jupiter.

Anyway, this equation has had a lot of scientific applications over the decades.  You can read through the different parts in this image

Peter Backus
So Peter Backus I don’t know much about, but he’s from London and he asks a very important question: “Why don’t I have a girlfriend?”  Most people would answer that question with something like maybe it’s my looks, my personality, my hobbies, my fashion, ect.  Not Backus, he went down the scientific route.  In order to answer the question, he took Drake’s equation as a basis and re-specified all the variables to factors related to his question.  You can find a PDF of his paper here, it’s only 4 pages so not too long, I recommend reading it.

I won’t talk about exactly what he did since you can just read his paper, but the important thing here is his results.  After accounting for women that would fit his criteria and would find him attractive too, he came down to 26 women out of the millions of people in London.  So there would be a 0.0000034% chance that he’d meet one of the 26 women on any random night in London.

This is where Hata-sensei got his number.  This is the percentage that Nasa refers to when he says it was a 0.0000034% he met Tsukasa.  But after thinking about it, would it really be that case?  Backus calculated that percentage based on his personal circumstances, so if I were to calculate my own chances using his formula, it’d be different, right?

The answer is yes.

My Own Calculation
So what I did find all the variables he states for my own specific circumstances such as where I live and my age and the such.  Since I live in a different country and I don’t live in a massive city like London, my numbers ofc were a little different.

After plugging in the calculations and accounting for the chances a women would find me attractive too, I got a result of 0.7175 people in my area.  Wow.

So my chances of meeting a girl that I’d have a nice relationship with on any random day would be about 0.00000052%.  That’s 6 zeros after the decimal while Backus had 5.  So essentially, my chances are about 10 times worse than Backus’s, but I also live in a place with less population.  While that will ofc affect my results, you gotta remember that in a practical application, I do live in a place with less people so ofc my chances will be lower.

In the end though, I won’t get too depressed about this bc I don’t need to worry about finding a girl when I have Hinagiku <3.  Meeting Hinagiku was a 0.00000052% chance even we could say (not actually though).

But also, I’d argue that this also means the chances of Nasa meeting Tsuaksa wouldn’t actually be 0.0000034%, but something different.  I guess we could technically calculate it based on real life data in Tokyo in 2018 when the chapter was published, but I’m too lazy to do so atm.  If I had to guess though, his chances would be higher than both mine and Backus’s since Tokyo has such a high population, but that would also mean more potential mates, so the chances of it being Tsukasa specifically might actually make it an even lower percent chance than mine.  Truly incredible, not to mention how they met too lmao.

Conclusion
So basically the chances I get a girlfriend are extremely slim.  Only about 10 times better than us finding intelligent life in the galaxy.  More reason to stick to 2d lmao.  It was kinda fun to calculate this though, makes me feel smart even though all I did was fill in the variables with the numbers that apply to me and click enter on a calculator lmao.  I’d encourage you guys to give it a try yourselves and share your results if you want (probably as a reply on X or something).

Well, that’s all for now.  I haven’t started on an Alya-san or H2 post yet but they’re probably come out at some point.  Probably.  Ok, bye